As Ubisoft executive Philippe Tremblay recently pointed out, it's time to accept that we no longer truly "own" the games we purchase. Microsoft has fully embraced this shift, with Game Pass being at the heart of their strategy. But how is that turning out?

In 2021, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella faced a crucial business decision: to shut down the Xbox division or double down on its future. Nadella chose the latter, opting to acquire two of the gaming industry's most successful companies. First came the $7 billion acquisition of ZeniMax Media, the parent company of Bethesda, followed by the monumental $75.4 billion deal for Activision Blizzard in 2023. These moves were made to significantly boost Game Pass subscriptions, with Microsoft aiming for a huge growth in the service’s subscriber base.

However, despite these bold moves, Game Pass has not met Microsoft's ambitious internal expectations. The company had originally forecasted more than 100 million Game Pass subscribers by 2030, with a 40 percent year-over-year growth target. To help achieve this goal, the Activision Blizzard acquisition was approved, directly tied to Nadella's compensation. But as the company failed to hit these targets for two consecutive years, the ambitious goals were scrapped in 2023.

Investors are now viewing Game Pass as a missed opportunity, citing its volatility and over-reliance on high-profile titles like Call of Duty. Microsoft has struggled to convince other game publishers to adopt its Azure cloud services, and even Activision, now under Microsoft’s umbrella, continues to use Google and Amazon's cloud services for development tasks.

When asked about Game Pass's performance, Microsoft pointed to a recent statement by Nadella to shareholders, which emphasized a new revenue record for the business. Despite this, the company's focus is shifting, with AI now seen as the key driver for Microsoft's future growth. As a result, the underperformance of Activision has had minimal impact on the company’s stock valuation. According to investor Denny Fish of Janus Henderson, shareholders are now more interested in investments in data centers and AI accelerators than in the success of the Activision deal.



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